Five principles for studying people's use of heuristics

Abstract: The fast and frugal heuristics framework assumes that people rely on an adaptive toolbox of simple decision strategies—called heuristics—to make inferences, choices, estimations, and other decisions. Each of these heuristics is tuned to regularities in the structure of the task environment and each is capable of exploiting the ways in which basic cognitive capacities work. In doing so, heuristics enable adaptive behavior. In this article, we give an overview of the framework and formulate five principles that should guide the study of people’s adaptive toolbox. We emphasize that models of heuristics should be (i) precisely defined; (ii) tested comparatively; (iii) studied in line with theories of strategy selection; (iv) evaluated by how well they predict new data; and (vi) tested in the real world in addition to the laboratory. Key words: fast and frugal heuristics; experimental design; model testing As we write this article, international financial markets are in turmoil. Large banks are going bankrupt almost daily. It is a difficult situation for financial decision makers — regardless of whether they are lay investors trying to make small-scale profits here and there or professionals employed by the finance industry. To safeguard their investments, these decision makers need to be able to foresee uncertain future economic developments, such as which investments are likely to be the safest and which companies are likely to crash next. In times of rapid waves of potentially devastating financial crashes, these informed bets must often be made quickly, with little time for extensive information search or computationally demanding calculations of likely future returns. Lay stock traders in particular have to trust the contents of their memories, relying on incomplete, imperfec

An Ecological Model of Memory and Inferences

In this paper, we develop a memory model that predicts retrieval characteristics of real-world facts. First, we show how ACT-R’s memory model can be used to predict people’s knowledge about real-world objects. The model assumes the probability of retrieving a chunk of information about an object and the time to retrieve this information depend on the pattern of prior environmental exposure to the object. Second, we use frequencies of information appearing on the Internet as a proxy for what information people would encounter in their natural environment, outside the laboratory. In two Experiments, we use this model to account for subjects’ associative knowledge about real-world objects as well as the associated retrieval latencies. Third, in a computer simulation, we explore how such model predictions can be used to understand the workings and performance of decision strategies that operate on the contents of declarative memory

T1ρ and T2 relaxation times predict progression of knee osteoarthritis

SummaryObjectiveTo evaluate whether T2 and T1ρ relaxation times of knee cartilage determined with 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline predict longitudinal progression of cartilage degenerative changes.MethodsQuantitative analysis of cartilage was performed using 3T MRI with both T2 and T1ρ mapping techniques in 55 subjects without evidence of severe osteoarthritis (OA) [Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) score of 0–3] at baseline. Morphological abnormalities of cartilage, menisci, ligaments and bone marrow were analyzed on sagittal fat-saturated intermediate-weighted fast spin echo (FSE) sequences. Progression of degenerative changes was analyzed over a period of 2 years. Progression was detected in 27 subjects while in 28 subjects no changes were found. Differences between T2 and T1ρ relaxation times in these two cohorts were compared using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and t tests.ResultsBaseline T2 and T1ρ values were significantly higher in the progression cohort in all compartments (P < 0.05) except the lateral tibia (LT) for T2 and the medial tibia (MT) for T1ρ. Progression of cartilage degenerative disease was most pronounced at the medial femoral condyles and at the femoro-patellar joint; differences between the two cohorts for T2 and T1ρ were also most significant in these compartments.ConclusionsT2 and T1ρ measurements were significantly higher at baseline in individuals that showed progression of cartilage abnormalities over a period of 2 years and may therefore serve as potential predictors for progression of degenerative cartilage abnormalities in knee OA

On the Nature of Everyday Prospection: A Review and Theoretical Integration of Research on Mind-Wandering, Future Thinking, and Prospective Memory

© 2020 The Authors. The final, definitive version of this paper has been published by Sage Publications Ltd. All rights reserved. It is available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/1089268020918843The ability to imagine and simulate events that may happen in the future has been studied in several related but independent research areas (e.g., episodic future thinking, mind-wandering, prospective memory), with a newly emerging field of involuntary future thinking focusing primarily on the spontaneous occurrence of such thoughts. In this article, we review evidence from these diverse fields to address important questions about why do people think about the future, what are the typical and most frequent contents of such thoughts, and how do these thoughts occur (are they spontaneous or constructed deliberately). Results of the literature review provide support for the pragmatic theory of prospection, by showing that when people engage in prospective thought naturally, without being explicitly instructed to do so, they predominantly think about their upcoming tasks and planned activities instead of simulating plausible but novel hypothetical scenarios. Moreover, prospective thoughts are more often spontaneous than deliberate and effortful, and their occurrence seems to increase the likelihood of planned activities being completed in the future. The findings are discussed in the context of a new “pragmatic dual process account” of future thinking, and new avenues for future research on prospection are outlined.Peer reviewe

Emergence of qualia from brain activity or from an interaction of proto-consciousness with the brain: which one is the weirder? Available evidence and a research agenda

This contribution to the science of consciousness aims at comparing how two different theories can explain the emergence of different qualia experiences, meta-awareness, meta-cognition, the placebo effect, out-of-body experiences, cognitive therapy and meditation-induced brain changes, etc. The first theory postulates that qualia experiences derive from specific neural patterns, the second one, that qualia experiences derive from the interaction of a proto-consciousness with the brain\u2019s neural activity. From this comparison it will be possible to judge which one seems to better explain the different qualia experiences and to offer a more promising research agenda

Alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation renders witnesses of crime less suggestible to misinformation

RATIONALE: Research has shown that alcohol can have both detrimental and facilitating effects on memory: intoxication can lead to poor memory for information encoded after alcohol consumption (anterograde amnesia) and may improve memory for information encoded before consumption (retrograde facilitation). This study examined whether alcohol consumed after witnessing a crime can render individuals less vulnerable to misleading post-event information (misinformation). METHOD: Participants watched a simulated crime video. Thereafter, one third of participants expected and received alcohol (alcohol group), one third did not expect but received alcohol (reverse placebo), and one third did not expect nor receive alcohol (control). After alcohol consumption, participants were exposed to misinformation embedded in a written narrative about the crime. The following day, participants completed a cued-recall questionnaire about the event. RESULTS: Control participants were more likely to report misinformation compared to the alcohol and reverse placebo group. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that we may oversimplify the effect alcohol has on suggestibility and that sometimes alcohol can have beneficial effects on eyewitness memory by protecting against misleading post-event information